Sunday, August 23, 2020

Fear vs. Climate Disaster


Fear is powerful. We saw morgues overflowing with bodies. Our doctors were dying. We knew friends and relatives who had the disease. COVID-19 was coming for us! So we shut the economy down and sheltered in place.
Fear does not work as well against the climate crisis. Many of us know how scary climate change is. Books like Falter by Bill McKibben and Uninhabitable Earth by David Wallace-Wells are very frightening. But even for those who have read them, it’s not like COVID-19. Why does fear not work for us here? Major corporations have spent billions of dollars to convince us climate change is still disputed by scientists, the dangers are well in our future, and if they are all true, our ingenuity will fix everything before it can hurt us. Most people are pretty certain these are lies. But we believe them anyway in our hearts, even those of us who are certain they are lies. We want to believe them. 
Climate-crisis fear may not be as strong as coronavirus fear, but it is still powerful, even with major industries fighting against it. Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (the FUD Factor) is a tool of persuasion. Republicans have used it against Democrats for years. We have all heard, “Democrats are coming for our guns,” “Democrats will raise our taxes,” and “Democrats will let rapists and murderers into our country, and those who do not rape and murder, will take our jobs.” 
Michelle Obama says, “When they go low, we go high.” But the climate disaster is coming, and may destroy civilization and perhaps even kill all life on Earth. We must do everything possible to mitigate the disaster. I intend to use the FUD Factor to help save us. I recommend others use it as well. 
Four more years having a climate denier as President of the United States will make it much harder to mitigate the climate crisis. I am posting images on Twitter in which I present Trump as the devil. He is pointing at you. He may burn down your house. He may flood out your home. He may harm your grandchildren. And he may enable your loved ones to kill themselves. But you can do something to stop him. You can vote against him. 
Here are small versions of the Twitter images I am posting. I have only 1,350 Twitter followers. These images probably will not make a difference, but we all need to do whatever we can.


















Full-size versions of these images also appear on the next four postings on this blog. 

Who am I? Why am I doing this? I am a novelist, writing a powerful global warming novel as part of my personal war against the climate crisis. I need a great publishing company to market the novel and print a lot of copies. Publishers look at an author's social media numbers as a sign of potential buyers. Please help. Friend me on Facebook, Follow me on Twitter, and connect with me on LinkedIn. Also, please share and comment on what I post. Consider it as doing a small part in saving humanity from the ravages of global warming. Thanks.

Trump May Burn Down Your House

Wildfires are devastating the American West as never before. That is the result of thirty years of climate denial. Four more years having a climate denier as President of the United States will make it much harder to mitigate the climate crisis. I am using Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) in my personal efforts to do what I can to help. See Fear vs. Climate Disaster for my description of FUD. I am posting images on Twitter in which I present Trump as the devil. He is pointing at you. He may burn down your hose. But you can do something to stop him. You can vote against him.

Who am I? Why am I doing this? I am a novelist, writing a powerful global warming novel as part of my personal war against the climate crisis. I need a great publishing company to market the novel and print a lot of copies. Publishers look at an author's social media numbers as a sign of potential buyers. Please help. Friend me on Facebook, Follow me on Twitter, and connect with me on LinkedIn. Also, please share and comment on what I post. Consider it as doing a small part in saving humanity from the ravages of global warming. Thanks.

Trump May Flood Out Your Home

We had devastating hurricanes this year. It is the result of thirty years of climate denial. Four more years having a climate denier as President of the United States will make it much harder to mitigate the climate crisis. I am using Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (Fud) in my personal efforts to do what I can to help. See Fear vs. Climate Disaster for my description of FUD. I am posting images on Twitter in which I present Trump as the devil. He is pointing at you. He may flood out your home. But you can do something to stop him. You can vote against him.

Who am I? Why am I doing this? I am a novelist, writing a powerful global warming novel as part of my personal war against the climate crisis. I need a great publishing company to market the novel and print a lot of copies. Publishers look at an author's social media numbers as a sign of potential buyers. Please help. Friend me on Facebook, Follow me on Twitter, and connect with me on LinkedIn. Also, please share and comment on what I post. Consider it as doing a small part in saving humanity from the ravages of global warming. Thanks.

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Trump May Harm Your Grandchildren

The climate apocalypse might kill us all. Four more years having a climate denier as President of the United States will make it much harder to mitigate the climate crisis. I am using Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (Fud) in my personal efforts to do what I can to help. See Fear vs. Climate Disaster for my description of FUD. I am posting images on Twitter in which I present Trump as the devil. He is pointing at you. He may harm your grandchildren. But you can do something to stop him. You can vote against him.

Who am I? Why am I doing this? I am a novelist, writing a powerful global warming novel as part of my personal war against the climate crisis. I need a great publishing company to market the novel and print a lot of copies. Publishers look at an author's social media numbers as a sign of potential buyers. Please help. Friend me on Facebook, Follow me on Twitter, and connect with me on LinkedIn. Also, please share and comment on what I post. Consider it as doing a small part in saving humanity from the ravages of global warming. Thanks.

Trump May Enable Your Loved Ones To Kill Themselves

I am a climate writer but this is not a climate tweet. I use it because it is horrifying to think of Trump enabling attractive young people to kill themselves, and saving life on Earth requires a reminder of his horrible nature. Trump's appointment of Amy Coney Barett not only will bring more gun deaths, it also is terrible for the climate. The climate apocalypse might kill us all. Four more years having a climate denier as President of the United States will make it much harder to mitigate the climate crisis. I am using Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (Fud) in my personal efforts to do what I can to help. See Fear vs. Climate Disaster for my description of FUD. I am posting images on Twitter in which I present Trump as the devil. He is pointing at you. He may enable your loved ones to kill themselves. But you can do something to stop him. You can vote against him.

Who am I? Why am I doing this? I am a novelist, writing a powerful global warming novel as part of my personal war against the climate crisis. I need a great publishing company to market the novel and print a lot of copies. Publishers look at an author's social media numbers as a sign of potential buyers. Please help. Friend me on Facebook, Follow me on Twitter, and connect with me on LinkedIn. Also, please share and comment on what I post. Consider it as doing a small part in saving humanity from the ravages of global warming. Thanks.

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Covid19: Just a Preview


With the COVID-19 pandemic, we are in fear and our lives are disrupted. I’m working from home. My wife’s business has closed. Several neighbors are very ill, confirmed cases with the virus. We are in self-quarantine. Our retirement plans have lost 45% of their value. The only funny part is there’s no toilet paper to be found anywhere.
The COVID-19 fear and disruption probably are temporary. A few years from now this is likely to be a bad memory for most of us, a very bad memory for some. The climate crisis will cause greater fear and disruption of our lives, and it will not be as temporary. It never will be just a memory. Pandemic disease may be one of the results of the climate crisis, but it most likely will not be the first or even the worst of the climate terrors. That probably will be the climate refugee crisis. 
For the sake of example, consider Lincoln, Nebraska, a city with about 285,000 people. It will not be bothered by rising seas or hurricanes. The high planes aquifer system (which includes the Ogallala aquifer) is running out of fresh water, but Lincoln is on its wettest part so it will not have the extensive drought problems the old “dust-bowl” areas will have. What Lincoln does have is a reputation for being “refugee friendly.” 
For the sake of example, let’s assume very few foreign refugees get to Lincoln. Let’s also assume that Lincoln does not receive many refugees from South Florida, where sea-level rise will displace millions of Americans. But one can easily assume that Lincoln will accept refugees fleeing the drought of the new dust bowl, reaching from Western Nebraska southward to, and including, Texas. These refugees will be experiencing far more fear and disruption than we feel today with COVID-19. They will have left behind good jobs and air-conditioned homes and full refrigerators. Unfortunately, they will not leave behind their guns.
The good people of Lincoln, at first, will invite refugees into their homes and shelters, until these fill up. Motel and hotel rooms will run out of vacancies, but Americans unfortunate enough to live in areas afflicted by climate change will keep arriving. Lincoln will continue trying to help. They will build refugee camps in public parks, using tax dollars to supply water, food, electricity, portable toilets, and construct make-shift homes and bring in trailers. For a while, they probably will even have toilet paper. But refugees will keep arriving and everything will be used up quickly. 
At the same time that refugees will be moving to cities like Lincoln, Nebraska, the world’s economy will be suffering, with climate-change problems at most coastlines and many drought areas. So the people of Lincoln will not be able to find jobs for their guests, even for those with the best education and experience. Electricity grids will be strained, so there will be brownouts and occasional black-outs. There may be enough water, but distribution of it to the new refugees will be difficult. Having enough food will become a concern. Sanitary conditions in the refugee camps will deteriorate. Three-level bunk beds will be built with barely room to walk between them. Showers will be very rare. There will not be enough portable toilets and those existing will not be processed as often as necessary. Common colds will turn into pneumonia, and disease will become rampant. Soon there will be more refugees than there are citizens of Lincoln.
The refugees with guns will come into residential parts of the city and will riot. There will not be enough police. The National Guard and even the U.S. Military will be busy with cities that are going under water or are experiencing serious drought and will not come to help. The rioters will try to steal food, water, and electricity, and the city’s electricity will end, and sinks and toilets will no longer work. Lincoln, Nebraska, will die. This will happen to nearly all cities throughout the United States and the world.
The scenario described above will happen unless, in the very near future, we stop sending carbon up into the atmosphere and start pulling it down. The rest of the world will have the same problems American cities will have. Cities such as Lincoln, with no drought or sea-level problems of their own, will be overwhelmed with refugees overburdening all attempts at support, and bringing crime, riots, and disease. Police and armed forces will be unable to stop the rioters, and hospitals will not be able to handle the diseases. Supplies of food, power, and water will fail because supply will not be able to meet demand. Economies will be in turmoil, and then governments will collapse. This is inevitable unless we stop putting greenhouse gasses into our air now. What we are seeing today with COVID-19 will not compare to the horror of the climate apocalypse. This is not a horror movie with coming attractions.


I am finishing the writing of a powerful global warming novel as part of my personal war against the climate crisis. I am confident it has the artistic quality to draw a large audience. I believe I’ve made it persuasive. But my novel, Mourning Dove, needs your help. Friend me on Facebook, Follow me on Twitter, and connect with me on LinkedIn. Mourning Dove needs a great publishing company to market it and print a lot of copies. Publishers look at an author's social media numbers as a sign of potential buyers. So please friend me, follow me, and connect with me, and comment on what I post. Consider it as doing a small part in saving humanity from the ravages of global warming. Thanks.

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Climate Books

UPDATED

As research for writing the novel MOURNING DOVE, I’ve read more than 75 books related to global warming. To see the books I read and my comments about them, go to my  Climate Books web page. Clicking on a book's picture will take you to a page where you can buy it. (I don't make any money out of it. The more people read about global warming, the better off we will all be.)

Please help me in my personal war against global warming. Friend me on Facebook, Follow me on Twitter, and connect with me on LinkedIn. I am writing a powerful global warming novel. I need a great publishing company to market it and print a lot of copies. Publishers look at an author's social media numbers as a sign of potential buyers. So please Friend me, Follow me, and Connect with me. Consider it as doing a small part in saving humanity from the ravages of global warming. Thanks.

Shawn Oueinsteen       
www.shawnouinsteen.com
mourningdovenovel.blogspot.com 



Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Freud's Double Nephew Can Help Mitigate the Climate Crisis


The undisputed father of public relations was Edward Bernays. His mother was Sigmund Freud’s sister; his father’s sister was Freud’s wife. He taught the world that facts and truth do not persuade the public. It is Freudian psychology that moves public opinion.
Freud believed sex and other deep-seated instincts controlled one’s mental state. Today those in favor of ignoring the climate crisis have successfully portrayed the Toyota Prius as a “wimpy” car. Big, gas-guzzling SUVs are manly, strong, and virile. Similarly, solar power and wind power can’t “get it up” when the sun is not shining or the wind is not blowing. Coal-fired power plants are big, strong, and always up to the task. Of course, Bernays is the reason car commercials frequently show sexy women.
Climate scientists talk of two degrees Celsius, 450 ppm, and three meters sea-level rise. There is no Freudian psychology with that. Even when we talk of the millions who may become climate refugees, or even the thousands who have already died from global-warming-enhanced storms, there are few subconscious emotions. Facts do not persuade. People accept “alternative facts” as equal to scientific facts. Facts are not trusted. They do not draw large audiences. People trust and act upon hormone-driven feelings deeply embedded in our psyches.
So how do we persuade the world to mitigate climate change? How do we save the lives of our children, and perhaps even save the planet? We have to use what wins: reach for the hormones, not the brains. We also need large audiences to hear us.
The campaign staff of Lyndon Johnson (LBJ) knew the writings of Edward Bernays. Their Daisy commercial was largely responsible for LBJ’s 1964 election landslide. It showed a 3-year old girl picking daisies, with the strong implication that she is obliterated by a nuclear bomb. That hit the maternal (and paternal) hormonal instincts extremely hard.
Greta Thunberg’s Katowice, Poland, UN Climate Change Conference speech touched the same parental instincts. She was fifteen, nervous, with hair out of place, and showed symptoms of Asperger’s syndrome. That speech made her famous in the climate-activist community. She was and still is wonderful for the environmental-crisis cause, but today she is well-groomed and more angry than nervous. She is less convincing now than she was then when she more strongly touched upon parental instincts. She also now attracts nasty, and perhaps evil, ridicule.
Jane Fonda, at 80, gets arrested every Friday fighting the climate crisis. Because of her acting talent, fame, and history, her activism reaches a large audience, but it does not change public opinion. The sexy and beautiful Barbarella (a character she played when she was young) was a persuasive campaigner for the anti-Vietnam War cause because she appealed to our sex drives. Most men wanted her. Many women wanted to be her. Even then, though, she also attracted nasty ridicule: Hanoi Jane. Despite the ridicule, the climate fight needs activists who reach audience’s sexual desires.
The Beatles persuaded young people everywhere to grow their hair long. How? By writing and performing romantic and sexy songs. Consider the lyrics to “She Was Just Seventeen.” One of the things that made Bob Dylan’s “The Times They Are A Changing” such a powerful song was his use of the human instinct to “join the herd.” 
So, what is needed to persuade the public to stop the climate crisis? Sexy scientists? No. The image of the beautiful Dr. Kim Cobb, throwing her fist in the air while speaking at a “Stand Up for Science” rally will stick with me for the rest of my life. But, unfortunately, sexy scientists giving speeches do not reach large audiences. I’m one of the few people who saw it.
To mitigate the upcoming climate disaster, we not only need to use Freudian urges, we also need people with the talent to attract large audiences. We need sexy, young Jane Fondas, romantic Beatles, Bob Dylans, poets, novelists, and even presidential candidates. But they all have to use techniques that reach the subconscious mind of the public. Facts, truth, and science cannot persuade the average person to save the planet. Using our deepest, darkest urges perhaps can.
The ideas of Bernays, involving Freudian psychology, can be just as persuasive today as the Daisy commercial was in 1964. We need such persuasive strength today.


I am finishing the writing of a powerful global warming novel as part of my personal war against the climate crisis. I am confident it shows enough artistic quality to draw a large audience. I believe I’ve made it persuasive, in a Bernaysian way. But my novel, Mourning Dove, needs your help. Friend me on Facebook, Follow me on Twitter, and connect with me on LinkedIn. Mourning Dove needs a great publishing company to market it and print a lot of copies. Publishers look at an author's social media numbers as a sign of potential buyers. So please friend me, follow me, and connect with me, and comment on what I post. Consider it as doing a small part in saving humanity from the ravages of global warming. Thanks.

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

To Mitigate the Climate Crisis, End the Legacy of Adolf Hitler

Hitler, from his coffin, will murder billion of people in the 21st century. Hitler’s poison manufacturing company, IG Farben, chose Auschwitz as the location of Nazi Germany's worst death camp because it had a factory nearby and it wanted slave labor. Its products killed millions of people in World War II. Chemicals created by the company’s founders killed thousands in WWI. Pesticides, herbicides, and even fertilizers are derivatives of the IG Farben chemical weapons. Today, they kill the microorganisms that create and become part of rich, black topsoil. Healthy topsoil contains much carbon, which plants suck out of the air and place into the ground. Chemicals derived from those designed for Hitler’s war machine kill our soil and it blows away in the wind. This is a feedback loop, ensuring that crops grow well only with more chemicals to replace the nutrients of the healthy topsoil that descendants of German war chemicals have killed.

Regenerating thick, carbon-rich topsoil is one of the most important things we must do to save the world from global warming. If we stopped burning fossil fuels now, the Earth would keep getting warmer. Carbon can remain in the atmosphere for centuries. Regenerative agriculture can remove much of this carbon. Plants can draw down great amounts of carbon and bury it in the soil. Regenerative agriculture is not simple. It depends on the desired crops, the amount of rainfall, the type of soil, the local climate, and many other factors. But there are foundations that have studied this and have most of the answers. (They include the Savory Network, the Rodale Institute, the Land Institute, and many others.) They have shown that we can draw down tremendous amounts of greenhouse gas, while growing more food for less money than food grown with chemicals based on Nazi chemistry. It may involve rotating farm animals onto cropland. It may involve no-till farming. But it works. Hundreds of farmers today are stunned at how it increases their crop yield, bringing in more money while saving costs. Black topsoil grows our food far better than poor soil puffed up with deadly chemicals. Using regenerative agriculture, we can feed the world, and make more profit while we do it. Saving the planet is an added benefit.

Why are all farmers not switching to regenerative agriculture? Blame Hitler and the Nazis here too. At the Nuremberg trials after WWII, IG Farben was broken up into Bayer, Hoechst, and BASF. One IG Farben board member was sentenced to prison for mass murder and slavery. Shortly after being released early for good behavior, he was named chairman of the board of Bayer. Today Bayer owns Monsanto. These companies and others that sell products derived from German war chemicals are part of “big Ag.” Such companies lobby governments not to change farming methodology because that would cost them money. Like their Nazi forbears, they obviously care more about profits than human life, health, and man’s future. They are the remnants of the German war machines of the twentieth century. To better feed the world, to save farmers, and to save the world from the climate crisis, we must fight them off. We need to convert to regenerative agriculture and finally beat the legacy of Adolf Hitler and IG Farben.



I am writing a powerful global warming novel as part of my personal war against the climate crisis. Please help. Friend me on Facebook, Follow me on Twitter, and connect with me on LinkedIn. I need a great publishing company to market the novel and print a lot of copies. Publishers look at an author's social media numbers as a sign of potential buyers. So please Friend me, Follow me, and Connect with me, and comment on what I post. Consider it as doing a small part in saving humanity from the ravages of global warming. Thanks.

Monday, September 2, 2019

Scenario Planning and the Climate Crisis

In climate discussions, we usually use logic-based arguments. Today these may be dismissed as alternative facts. They do not seem to be working very well. Instead, we should use arguments based on scenario planning. A well-written scenario can enter the bones and even the hearts and stay there.

In modern times, scenario planning was described independently by Herman Kahn and Gaston Berger in the early 1960’s and expanded upon and used by the United States military ever since. Very briefly, scenario planning revolves around determining a limited number of assumptions, also known as drivers for change, and then figuring out how things will change if those assumptions occur. Computer modeling is a form of scenario planning. But scenario planning predates all of this. It has been used ever since one person told another a story. 

In the climate-change arena, a scenario might start with the assumption that sea levels are rising and South Florida bedrock is porous limestone so nothing can be done locally to stop flooding even in sunny weather. With those two drivers for change, consider a scenario tracking a typical family of four. They own a small business and a single-family home. With the occasional flooding, customers are moving north, and the business is hurting. Flooding damages both the business and the home. Insurance pays for repairs the first few times, but the insurance company finally drops the family and they can no longer find insurance at a price they can afford. They try to move north but millions of Floridians have moved north and there are no jobs, nor housing at a price they can afford. They end up in a refugee camp. But with too many refugees, the camp struggles to provide food, water, power, police, and medical care. People start dying of crime, disease, and eventually thirst and starvation. The city that hosts the refugee camp is affected by the disease, crime, and overuse of resources. That causes more crime and disease. The city government calls in Federal resources, but many other cities experience the same circumstances and the Federal government eventually can no longer help. Water and sewer services fail, power systems fail, and civilization is dying.

A similar scenario might follow a typical family in Texas experiencing severe drought. They too move north. As with the family from Florida, they find themselves in refugee camps with the same problems, and civilization starts to die there, too. Another scenario can be used for those who experience super storms that destroy cities. Residents flee to refugee camps, and civilization dies for them as well.

Scenario planning shows that long before global warming makes life outdoors too hot, or destroys factory farming, or even causes extreme flooding or dries up rivers, civilization will end. This is persuasive.

If we add names and faces to our scenarios, especially those of innocent children, grandparents, kind nurses, and even puppies, using scenario-based arguments can change hearts of climate fence-sitters. If enough hearts are changed to affect voting and energy use, perhaps scenario planning can help to prevent the worst of these scenarios from actually coming to pass.



I am writing a powerful global warming novel as part of my personal war against the climate crisis. Please help. Friend me on Facebook, Follow me on Twitter, and connect with me on LinkedIn.  I need a great publishing company to market the novel and print a lot of copies. Publishers look at an author's social media numbers as a sign of potential buyers. So please Friend me, Follow me, and Connect with me, and comment on what I post. Consider it as doing a small part in saving humanity from the ravages of global warming. Thanks.

Shawn Oueinsteen       
www.shawnouinsteen.com
mourningdovenovel.blogspot.com